A new report published this month through Harvard Dataverse reveals that at least 377,000 people in Gaza have been "disappeared" by the Israeli army since October 2023, with half of that number believed to be children.
The report, authored by Israeli professor Yaakov Garb, uses data-driven analysis and spatial mapping to examine how Israeli attacks on civilians and the obstruction of humanitarian aid have led to a dramatic decline in the enclave's population.
According to Garb's conclusions, the actual death toll could be much higher than the official total, which currently hovers around 61,000.
Maps included in the report, based on the Israeli army's own estimates, indicate that the remaining population in Gaza City is around 1 million, with 500,000 in Mawasi and 350,000 in central Gaza, totaling approximately 1.85 million.
Before the war, Gaza's population was estimated at 2.227 million. The discrepancy indicates a population loss of at least 377,000 people.
While some may be displaced or missing, the magnitude of the gap has led analysts to conclude that a significant number are likely dead, suggesting that the actual death toll could be several times higher.
Access, Obstruction, and the Design of Aid Points
The report also critically assesses the role of the US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), arguing that its structure appears to have been shaped more by Israeli military strategy than by humanitarian needs.
Using location data and spatial analysis, Garb concludes that most of Gaza's population was unable to reach GHF aid distribution centers.
These locations were largely inaccessible, cut off from southern Gaza by the Israeli-controlled Netzarim corridor. The location of these points within declared buffer zones meant that civilians seeking aid had to enter areas formally prohibited by the Israeli military.
According to the report, poor infrastructure, a lack of motorized transportation, and a near-total absence of safe routes made access even more difficult.
Garb writes that the design and operation of these aid centers “appear to function as engines of continuous friction and incidents,” noting that the allocation model—which provided rations for exactly 5.5 people for 3.5 days—forced civilians to make repeated and dangerous crossings into militarized zones.
“The fact that four of the five aid centers are south of the Morag corridor—repeatedly highlighted by Israeli authorities as the intended destination for the concentration of Palestinians displaced from the rest of Gaza amid an imminent intensification of military attacks—is not a good sign,” the report warns.
No Dignity, No Protection
The report highlights that almost no measures were taken to protect the dignity or safety of civilians seeking aid. The sites lacked basic facilities such as shade, water, toilets, first aid stations, or dedicated access points for vulnerable groups. There was often only one entry and exit point, with no crowd control, and chaos was common.
The report argues that the very architecture of these aid centers was designed to generate repeated outbreaks of disorder, conditions then used to justify violence against civilians.
“Overall, these aid centers appear to reflect a logic of control, not assistance, and it is misleading to call them ‘humanitarian aid distribution centers.’ They do not follow humanitarian principles, and much of their design and operation is guided by other objectives, which undermine their purported purpose,” the report concludes.
The publication coincides with the Gaza Health Ministry’s confirmation on Tuesday that at least 450 people have been killed and around 3,500 injured since the end of May while trying to access humanitarian aid.
According to the ministry, most of those killed were shot near or en route to the US-backed GHF distribution centers.
Source: Fepal
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